Setting the numbers straight
Posted June 19, 2018, 8:42 am
This past week, a poll was released by Franklin and Marshal College that purported to show Gov. Wolf well ahead of Sen. Scott Wagner in the Governor’s race. This was dutifully reported in the MSM as “fact” without question or qualification. As is unfortunately all too usual, it is not fact.
The F&M poll sample included 51% Democrats and 41% Republicans (+10% Dem). This skews the results immediately on many levels.
The state registration is 48% Democrat and 39% Republican (+9% Dem). Secondly, to be predictive, a poll should reflect probable turnout and never in the history of the state has turnout been that lopsided. The largest party disparity in the last three midterms was in 2006 when the Democrats enjoyed a 2.26% advantage. The largest Democrat margin in history was the 2008 Presidential election when they had a 6.6 % majority. Both are a far cry from the 10% assumed in the poll universe. To put it politely, the Democrats were “oversampled”.
The next big skew was that when asked who they voted for in the 2016 Presidential election, 51% of those polled said they voted for Clinton and 43% said they voted for Trump. We all know that is not reflective of the reality of the voting public.
6.1% of those polled said they didn’t vote in the Presidential election. Vote percentage in Presidential elections is significantly higher than mid terms so there is a strong suggestion that many non-voters are included in the F&M poll. 13% of those polled said they were unlikely to vote in this election. That indicates very sloppy technique in polling methodology to include unlikely voters.
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Tuesday June 11th Primaries Big for President Trump
Posted June 13, 2018, 10:36 am
On Tuesday night, Maine, South Carolina, Virginia, Nevada and North Dakota held Primary Elections and Pro-Trump candidates did very well. Leading the list, in South Carolina Trump antagonist and incumbent GOP Congressman Mark Sanford was defeated. Sanford was defeated by very Pro-Trump State Rep. Katie Arrington.
In Virginia, another Pro-Trump candidate won big. Senate candidate Corey Stewart beat several others to win the right to challenge Hillary running mate Tim Kaine for the Senate.
In Nevada, Danny Tarkanian easily beat incumbent Republican Congressman Dean Heller who voted against repealing Obama Care. This gives Republicans a real chance to retain that seat.
In North Dakota, Rep. Kevin Cramer won the slot to face incumbent Democrat Senator Heidi Heitcamp. Cramer is supported by President Trump and could well upset Heitcamp.
There is no doubt about it. People like President Trump and the Trump Train is moving out for the Fall election.
June 28th Reception for Josh Kail
Posted June 8, 2018, 10:54 am
Fall General Elections
Posted June 6, 2018, 10:02 am
The Washington County Republican Party begins its preparations for the Fall General Elections. After several contentious Primary contests, the Party has closed ranks and is united in backing the Republican Primary winners.
County Commissioner Diana Irey Vaughan announced her endorsement of GOP candidates for Governor Scott Wagner and Lt. Governor Jeff Bartos as well as the rest of the Republican slate.
The Press Release follows:
Washington County Republican Party
June 5, 2018
Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey Vaughan announced today that she was endorsing the candidacy of State Senator Scott Wagner for Governor of Pennsylvania.
Commissioner Irey Vaughan said that she supports the Republican ticket 100%. Two weeks ago she participated in a “Unity Run” with her former Republican rival for Lt. Governor, Jeff Bartos.
Washington County Republican Vice Chairman and party Spokesman Dave Ball said that the party is united in replacing one of the most liberal Governors in the nation. “Electing Scott Wagner is critical to bringing jobs and economic prosperity to Pennsylvania. Scott Wagner gives Pennsylvania the best opportunity to be a great state, the Keystone state!”
Vaughn added to this by stating, “I urge my supporters to get behind Scott and work to get he and Jeff elected. Our County party is focused on winning in November. Join the team to make this happen.”
The WCRP Executive Leadership Team
Posted June 6, 2018, 9:59 am
Patriot Post Cartoons
Posted May 1, 2018, 6:25 am